NY Fed’s Nowcast for 1Q GDP fell sharply to 6.3% from 8.6% last week

Industrial production and Capacity Utilization lead to the sharp fall

The NY Fed’s Nowcast model for 1Q GDP growth fell sharply to 6.3% from 8.6% last week.
The biggest negative contributors to the sharp fall this week were from industrial production (-0.89%) and capacity utilization (-0.86%).  Retail sales also led to a -0.58% decline in the models GDP growth estimate.
The biggest positive contributor came from data revisions (+0.27%).  The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business Outlook added 0.04%.
Industrial production and Capacity Utilization lead to the sharp fall

The fall in the NY Fed model, brings the estimate more in line with the Atlanta Fed model which pegs 1Q growth at 5.7%.  They will announce a new estimate on March 24.

The Feds central tendencies for GDP in 2021 are looking for growth to come in between 5.8% 6.6%.