IEA says that a new oil ‘supercycle’ seems unlikely

IEA comments in its latest report on the oil market

  • There is more than enough oil to keep the market adequately supplied
  • Oil inventories still look ample compared with historical levels
  • A hefty amount of spare production capacity has built up due to OPEC+ curbs
  • Global oil demand won’t hit pre-virus levels until 2023

That is a bit of a wet blanket on the whole bullish rhetoric on oil that the market has built up in recent weeks. I’d keep this in view but the market will decide what it wants to as it sticks to the whole reflation narrative, so there’s that to consider as well.

IEAIEA forecasts show global oil demand to slow after a burst this year