Eurozone final inflation figures for February on the agenda today
The market is keeping a more tepid mood and I would things to continue that way until we get to hear from the Fed later on in the day. There really isn’t much else to talk about in the meantime as everything else takes a backseat in trading today.
The euro may still find itself in a bit of a pickle in light of vaccine disruptions and fears surrounding a third wave in some countries, but the focus for today is the dollar.
Dollar sentiment will largely ride on the back of Treasury yields so if the dot plots and Fed forecasts give the green light for Treasuries to sell off, expect the greenback to ride high in the aftermath and that might cause jitters in equities.
I would expect Powell to keep a more dovish stance but given how the bond market has been doing its own thing in the past month or so, I reckon investors will only want to see what it wants to see unless the Fed really pushes back firmly.
1000 GMT – Eurozone January construction output
Prior release can be found here. This is very much a lagging release as the market remains more focused on the 2H 2021 outlook at this stage.
1000 GMT – Eurozone February final CPI figures
The preliminary report can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t offer much as any uptick in inflation in 1H 2021 will continue to be brushed aside by the ECB – more so now that economic developments are looking more complicated.
1100 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 12 March
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Amid the sudden turn higher rates this year, recent mortgage activity has dipped with purchases falling sharply alongside refinancing activity so it’ll be one to watch out for.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.