SG expect the US 10 year at 2% by year end – the key risk is the Fed responding

Scanning some notes this stood out from Société Générale

Analysts at the bank expect the US 10-year yield to climb to 2% by the end of 2021 citing:


  • fiscal support,
  • improving fundamentals,
  • easy financial conditions
  • accommodative Federal Reserve support


Nothing too surprising ion their reasoning but the 2% forecast is above what I’ve seen elsewhere. SG highlights a key risk to their view as the Fed launching a policy response to the slump in price.

If the 10yr keeps on heading up its hard to see the USD losing too much ground.