Goldman Sachs end-2021 UST 10 year forecast is 1.9% on ‘turbocharged growth expectations’

GS has ramped its forecast higher from 1.5% to 1.9% citing:
  • persistent aggressive central bank pricing
  • continued repricing higher of intermediate and long-end real yields on turbocharged growth expectations
In that link to the SG projection you’ll note their ‘key risk’ (i.e. the Fed pushing back). Morgan Stanley are looking for this as soon as the March FOMC meeting:
  • Expects Fed push back against current market pricing of rate hikes
  • says the result will be investor fear subsiding about an earlier exit from accommodative policy
MS say this will present a:
  • tactical opportunity to buy the bond market
March FOMC is on the 17th, announcement at 1800GMT
  • Fed Chair Powell press conference follows at 1830 GMT
Earlier post here on SG's even higher yield target of 2% by the end of 2021: