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Morgan Stanley says US economy is on fire, the recession … ‘its over’

A snippet from a MS Sunday client note

Morgan Stanley cite:
  • the current speed of the vaccination rollout
  • new fiscal stimulus still to come (check this out: US Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill)
  • imminent spring weather
And say:
  • it’s difficult not to imagine an economy that’s on fire later this year
  • and long story short is the recession is effectively over
Bond markets have been saying this for weeks, yep.

PIMCO says developed economies may require stimulus for longer than currently appreciated because of China winding back stimulus

Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets.

The firm have a publicly available piece posted in which they argue:
  • The  People’s Bank of China have announced it has begun to reduce coronavirus-related stimulus early
  • policy tightening in China is already being felt domestically in the form of tighter money market liquidity, moderating private credit growth, and reduced government bond issuance
  • PBOC is targeting overall credit to grow in line with nominal GDP, implying the credit impulse will fall to around -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in the fourth quarter of 2020. All else equal, this may slow China’s economic activity to below-trend levels by late 2022.
One of the key implications PIMCO cites is:
  • China provides a key engine of global growth … If past is prologue, developed countries may be required to maintain stimulus measures for longer than presently expected.
Here is the link if you want to read quite a bit more.
Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets.

Oil traders note – Saudi oil export ports, facilities targeted in attacks Sunday

Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal.

A spokesman at the Ministry of Energy said
  • that one of the petroleum tank farms at the Ras Tanura Port in the Eastern Regio was attacked by a drone
  • another attempt was also made later to attack Saudi Aramco’s facilities
  • shrapnel from a ballistic missile fell near Saudi Aramco’s residential area in the city of Dhahran
  • said that both attacks did not result in any injury or loss of life or property
Other reports are that oil is still being loaded at Ras Tanura and a tanker has berthed at the facility after the earlier attacks.
Oil traders should be wary of a price pop on the news, although it does seem (according to the official reports at least) that there will be minimal, if any, disruption.
Saudi Arabia says ports and other facilities have been targeted by drones and missile strikes but has assured that damage is minimal.