Treasury market now virtually unchanged
Treasury yields had pushed lower earlier in the day on risk aversion and speculation about Powell offer (at the very least) a dovish hint.
The peak of the move was US 10s falling 4 bps to 1.44%. They’ve since risen back to unchanged on the day at 1.48% with most of that coming in the past hour.
Given Evans’ comments yesterday and other Fed commentary in the past week, the main risk is that Powell says nothing and highlights the move higher in rates as driven by economic optimism. If that’s the case, then we could see yields begin a climb back to 1.60%.