US Q4 GDP (second reading) +4.1% vs +4.2% expected

Fourth quarter 2020 GDP estimate

US Q4 GDP (second reading) chart
  • First reading was +4.0%
  • Final Q3 reading was +33.4%
  • Personal consumption +2.4% vs +2.5% expected
  • GDP price index +2.1% vs +2.0% expected
  • Core PCE +1.4% vs +1.4% expected
  • Deflator +2.0%
  • Full report
Details:

  • Ex motor vehicles +4.7% vs +4.5% prelim
  • Final sales +3.0% vs +3.0% prelim
  • Inventories added 1.11 pp to GDP vs 1.04 in prelim report
  • Business investment +14.0% vs +13.8% prelim
  • Business investment in equipment +25.7% vs +24.9% prelim
  • Exports +21.8% vs +22.0% prelim
  • Imports +29.6% vs +29.5% prelim
  • Home investment +35.8% vs +33.5% prelim
The consumer was a tad weaker in Q4 than initial reports while business and home investment was a bit stronger. Overall, I don’t see anything here that will bleed into Q1 2021.