EUR/USD falls, near 1.20
The US dollar is near the best levels of the day right across the board after January retail sales rose 5.3%, blowing away expectations for a 1.1% gain.
EUR/USD has been a chief loser in the move, falling 30 pips to 1.2030. The pair hasn’t fallen below 1.20 since February 4.
Other moves are more-modest with the US dollar rising around a dozen pips.
The moves would be larger but there are some automatic stabilizers built into the market. The thinking is that strong data diminishes the need for fiscal stimulus from Congress. So while consumers are better off now, they might not be getting as much help later.
I think this doesn’t change the playbook for Congress so it’s ultimately going to be good for the dollar and equity futures, so long as the Fed doesn’t waiver in its belief that high spring/summer inflation will be temporary.