OPEC agrees to raise production by 75K bpd in Feb and March

Draft statement released (update: Saudis to cut “in excess” of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March)

Draft statement released (update: Saudis to cut "in excess" of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March)
The OPEC+ agreement is that Russia will be allowed to raise production by 65K bpd and Kazakhstan by 10K bpd in each month.
We don’t know yet what cut Saudi Arabia is offering but they may take on that same amount. The net would be unchanged production through March, which is a big win for the global oil market when the baseline was a 1 mbpd increase over that timeframe.
I’d warn again that number isn’t in the statement so we’ll have to wait for a separate comment from Saudi Arabia. Update: Saudis to cut “in excess” of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March, according to Reuters.
At the same time, you have to frame that against increasing lockdowns and the growing threat of further lockdowns from here.
Still, we get two months of certainty before the March meeting and that takes some headlines risk out of the oil market.
It’s make-or-break time for crude. I’m betting on a break but $50 needs to give way.