Model sees Texas turning blue
YouGov has released its final model for the US election and sees tipping point state Pennsylvania at 53-46% in what would be a big win for Biden. Beyond that, they have him winning Georgia, North Carolina and eking out Texas 49-48%.
They see Biden winning 382 electoral votes, far more than the the 270 needed to win the election.
Obviously, we’ve been down this road before in the 2016 election but the report details changes they have made since then. One thing they’re doing is relying on panelists to weight votes and they believe it’s worked.
“Contrary to some claims, it is pretty good and allows us to calibrate our samples to actual votes in the past election,” they write.
Importantly, they dismiss the ‘shy’ Trump supporter belief:
They weren’t shy then and they aren’t shy now, though 3% of them say they are voting for Joe Biden today, vs 1% of Clinton voters who are backing Trump today.