The Federal Open Market Committee is on 5 November,
- Announcement due at 1900 GMT
- Chair Powell news conference follows at 1930 GMT
This via Citi, the main points they make (bolding mine, it could be a snoozer):
- We expect no policy action or significant guidance on future policy
- The meeting will be held just following US elections and in the wake of a very substantial upward revision to Fed growth forecasts in September. This backdrop argues for a very quiet meeting.
- MBS purchases will likely be tapered, but we expect an announcement no earlier than December.
- Fed officials “not even thinking about, thinking about, thinking about” rate hikes
Citi on 2021 for the FOMC is interesting:
- The Fed’s low rate pledge may be challenged by markets in H1 2021. In spring 2021 core PCE inflation is likely to be registering above 2%YoY as a consequence of base effects. Risks to Fed growth forecasts continue to lie to the upside. This may lead the market to begin pricing at least the possibility of earlier rate hikes and/or less accommodative asset purchases.