US Q3 advance GDP +33.1% vs +32.0% expected

  • The first look at US Q3 GDP:

    • Best US quarter on record (following the worst quarter)
    • Q2 was -31.4%
    • Ex motor vehicles +26.3% vs -29.0%
    • Personal consumption +40.7% vs +38.9% expected
    • GDP price index +3.6% vs +2.9% expected
    • Core PCE q/q +3.5% vs +4.0% expected
    • Inventories added 6.62 pp to GDP
    • Business investment +20.3% vs -27.2% prior
    • Business investment in equipment +70.1% vs -35.9% prior
    • Exports +59.7% vs -64.4% prior
    • Imports +91.1% vs -54.1% prior
    • Inventories added 6.62 pp to GDP

    These are all breathtaking numbers but were largely expected. The consumption number stands out as a pleasant surprise but the business investment number is marginally negative, especially since those high investments in equipment were partly due to one-off covid changes (like installing dividers).