China Q3 GDP +2.7% q/q (expected +3.3%)

A miss for the data from China, a rare occurrence.

China Q3 GDP

+2.7% q/q

  • expected +3.3% q/q, prior +11.5%

+4.9% y/y

  • expected +5.5% y/y, prior was +3.2%
What will have had a notable negative impact is the recovery in imports into China, but the effect of this is as a depressing impact on GDP. But, strong imports are a sign of economic strength so I suspect there will be a catch up ahead for GDP. Over the weekend PBOC Gov Yi Ganag said he expected positive growth in China for 2020. So far, YTD, economic growth is +0.7 so he looks to be on the oney.

Also out at the same time, ‘activity data for September, which is much better.

Industrial Production 6.9% y/y, helped along by improving exports.

  • expected 5.8%, prior was 5.6%

Industrial Production YTD 1.2% y/y

  • expected 1.0%, prior was 0.4%

Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD +0.8% y/y

  • expected 0.9%, prior was -0.3%

Retail Sales +3.3% y/y, indicative of a continued rebound for domestic consumption

  • expected 1.6%, prior was 0.5%

Retail Sales YTD -7.2% y/y

  • expected -7.4%, prior was -8.6%
Market impact so far is a small sell off for risk currencies such as AUD and NZD …. but its small. Stocks in China also off.