The stimulus spending is what matters
The drama around Trump is frenetic but the people who are conflating his improvement with the rise in equity futures are misinterpreting what’s happening.
It’s all about the stimulus package. After markets closed on Friday, Mitch McConnell said a deal was getting closer. On the weekend Trump tweeted a plea for more stimulus. Nancy Pelosi offered hints of improvement and there was an undisclosed meeting beween her, Mnuchin and Powell.
It’s tough to say what Trump’s diagnosis will mean for the Presidential race but I’m highly inclined to believe it’s not a big factor. Unless there is some sign that he’s near death or incapacitated, it’s not the dominant factor in trading.
What matters for the market right now is the growing likelihood of a stimulus package worth $1.5-$2.2 trillion. If House Democrats are reading the same polls that I am, they know they have the leverage here and that’s likely pushing the stimulus tally above the old $1.5T White House offer.
The potential for the economy is huge. Included in this is another round of $1200 checks for most Americans and elevated unemployment benefits. Small businesses will get a wave of funds and there will be money to prevent state and local governments from making job cuts. These are massive dollar figures and will be hugely beneficial for stock markets.
What else? Gold certainly has to be a winner here and we’re seeing that in the early going. The dollar will struggle against commodity currencies and EM.