Why to stay bullish EUR/USD this quarter

  • Worries over virus developments outside the US have started to surface, so is now the time to get EUR negative again? We doubt that we will witness the large-scale closures seen during the spring and yesterday’s price action suggests that one probably needs to look for US rate rises and/or tech outperformance to get very negative on EUR/USD short term” 
  • “In our base case that Fed delivers on its inflation hints with enhanced forward guidance in September, a reflation narrative is set to keep USD under pressure in Q3 and make a test of new year-highs in EUR/USD the dominating risk into the autumn. If that base case plays out, it would also spell good news for commodity currencies and in particularly the NOK enjoying a large beta to both commodities and European equities. A key downside risk to EUR/USD and commodity currencies is if Trump scraps the trade deal amid the current China software lash and/or election stress” 
Comments from Danske on the euro, this via eFX (For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus)