Trump has a 91% chance of winning the November 2020 election says Primary Model

The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

  • has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996
  • Norpoth says his model would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912
His model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests
The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth