China Beige Book are expecting a contraction for China’s economy in 2020

CBB International is a New-York-based research group. The firm puts a private survey called the China Beige Book

  • China Beige Book adapts methodology used by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book”
  • a quarterly report
  • Uses quantitative & qualitative data to track conditions within the Chinese economy
This latest survey utilises the survey of more than 3,300 firms, conducted mid-May to mid-June.
In brief, the results show:
  • China’s economy contracted in Q2 (ie the three months April to June) from a year earlier
  • historically low levels of manufacturing profits, capital expenditures and retail sales volumes, barely up from Q1
  • slow global demand remains a drag on growth
Looking out further:
  • “The eventual return to growth does not mean a return to anything approaching the old levels of growth”
  • “Until and unless global demand recovers more forcefully, the incremental quarterly improvement just seen will make for a contraction for full-year 2020”
Q2 GDP will be announced on July 16.
CBB International is a New-York-based research group. The firm puts a private survey called the China Beige Book