Morgan Stanley’s latest out look report project the Australian dollar to 0.74 in 2021
MS look for what they describe as “front-loaded gains” for AUD:
- Australia will outpaces developed market peers on economic growth
- should also benefit from expansionary fiscal policy
- RBA to be relatively-less-dovish
- Australia is open to positive growth areas like manufacturing-sensitive Asia
- high carry should also make it an attractive destination for yield-seekers
By 2021 other economies should have caught up to Australia.
After that “Australia’s structural economic challenges related to household indebtedness and deleveraging once again come into focus”, which will halt the AUD gain around 0.74.