US Nonfarm payroll for April tumbled -20500K vs -22000K

The US jobs report for April 2020

  • change nonfarm payroll -20500 vs -22000K. Prior month revised to minus 870K from -701K previously reported
  • 2 month payroll revisions-214K
  • private payrolls felt -19520K versus -22000K estimate
  • unemployment rate 14.7% vs 16.0% est
  • change manufacturing jobs -1330K vs -2500K est
  • average hourly earnings MoM 4.7% vs 0.4% est
  • average hourly earnings YoY 7.9% vs 3.3% estimate
  • average weekly hours 34.2 vs 33.5 hours
  • labor force participation rate 60.2% vs 61% estimate
  • Labor Department said large number of workers classified as employed, but absent. That likely The unemployment rate at 8 number better than estimated him

The numbers came out remarkably near the estimates (give or take 1.5 million).  The unemployment rate was better-than-expected however the Labor Department did say that large number of workers classified as employed, but absent. If those tilt to unemployed the unemployment rate would be higher.

The US labor department is out saying that the unemployment rate would be 5% higher if that workers were classified correctly. That would take the unemployment rate to near 20% (19.7%).
The initial reactions:
  • USDJPY moves higher. The EURUSD and GBPUSD moved lower.  AUDUSD move marginally higher but as rotated back lower
  • US stocks are higher. The Dow is up 319 points.  The NASDAQ index is up 110 points
  • US yields are higher with the 2 year up 2.1 basis points the 30 year is up 3.0 basis points