ECB: Euro area GDP could shrink by 5% to 12% this year

ECB notes in a pre-release of its economic bulletin

  • Euro area real GDP could fall by around 5% (mild scenario), 8% (medium scenario), and 12% (severe scenario) this year
  • Under the severe scenario, Q2 quarterly real GDP growth could be -15%, followed by a protracted and incomplete recovery; +6% in Q3, +3% in Q4
  • Under the severe scenario, real GDP is expected to remain well below the level observed at the end of 2019 until the end of 2022
The headline isn’t so much of a surprise since it is the same as what Lagarde has already highlighted in her press conference yesterday. This just adds more colour to it. In case you missed Lagarde’s remarks, you can check them out here and here (Q&A).