JP Morgan on the US: “We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March”

JPM:
  • We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
  • Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
  • We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
  • Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25