Archives of “February 2020” month

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Italy coronavirus cases are inflated due to testing errors – WHO official

  
  Analysis
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A WHO official with a remark over the coronavirus cases in Italy

Some good news for risk perhaps? The market isn’t budging though as there is no further details on the margin of error. That said, the fact that we are seeing cases become more widespread across Europe doesn’t help to do much damage control for now.

Update: Okay, this is a piece from Corriere which is saying that the Veneto region did not follow test guidelines when testing patients for the infection. Just take note that Veneto had 71 reported infections in the country yesterday, out of the nearly 400 cases reported.

PBOC: We will ensure ample liquidity through targeted RRR cuts at the appropriate time

  
  Analysis

Comments by PBOC vice governor, Liu Guoqiang

PBOC
  • Will increase re-lending and re-discount credit
  • Will launch policies to support capital replenishment of smaller lenders
The Chinese central bank continues to reiterate their determination to push forward with more stimulus measures to prop up the economy. Expect more easing measures down the road as China continues on its path to recovery, which may take quite some time.

Exante – COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic, China numbers not believable

  
  Analysis
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Exante Data is a New York based macro advisory & data analytics firm to funds, central banks, corporates and banks

  • there is a near unanimity of opinion that COVID-19 is in the early stages of a pandemic
  • even the unprecedented public health interventions we are seeing worldwide will be stymied by the atypical transmissibility characteristics of the virus
  • Indonesia’s zero is mathematically implausible
  • The metronomic decline of cases reported across China’s provinces also tests the limits of credulity.
Their advice is not comforting:
  • Our principal message to clients has been that if COVID-19 is not effectively contained by May, the underlying empirical premises upon which risk management systems have been designed and deployed over the past thirty years will necessarily fail.
  • COVID will be beyond the sample available, and cascade through global supply chains and the financial system in ways that no one can credibly predict. This is not to mention the societal and political upheaval entailed.
Bolding mine.
corcoronavirus black swan

US President Trump says the coronavirus will probably spread in the US

  
  Analysis
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President of the United States Trump press conference

  • Says virus will probably spread in the US
There is no probably about it. I am surprised he is not informed on this.
More:
  • May need to restrict travel from Italy, South Korea but now is not the right time
S&P500 futures lower again, getting sold heavily on Globex

The coronavirus will be a pandemic, here are 8 things to do

  
Analysis, Education
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Here is a piece from CNN on “Covid-19 will become a pandemic” and “we must do eight things “.

Some of the 8 seem pretty ****ing obvious, eg 4. Improve medical care and prevention of Covid-19.
Well, yeah, OK. Here is the link for the other 7.
#9 is to cut down on sugar, diabetes is gonna kill way more folks than this infection (my 2c)
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