Archives of “February 2020” month

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ASX listed Zoono product tests show > 99.99% effective against COVOID-19 (coronavirus)

  
  Analysis
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Zoono Group is listed in Australia, report on laboratory tests undertaken against COVID-19.

  • results show that Zoono’s Z-71 Microbe Shield (the same Zoono technology used in Zoono hand sanitiser) is > 99.99% effective against COVOID-19.
This is not as straightforward as it sounds (its a hand sanitiser product, not a vaccine or the like), so here is the full text link.
Nevertheless, a bot of good news.
Zoono Group is listed in Australia, report on laboratory tests undertaken against COVID-19. 

Bank of America revises global GDP forecast to weakest since 2009

  
Analysis, Economy
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Thursday note from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch

  • Project global growth for 2020 at 2.8%
  • slowest since 2009
  • Expect China to be weakest since 1990
And …
  • risks are still skewed to the downside
  • Our forecasts do not include a global pandemic that would basically shut down economic activity in many major cities
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And, just thinking out loud …. does the coronavirus mean the yield curve inversion was right all along?

Guggenheim’s Minerd on Bloomberg speaks bearishly about markets

  
  Analysis

Bearish assessment of the market from Guggenheim’s chief investment officer Scott Minerd

If you want negative comments about the prospects for the markets, Guggenheim’s chief investment officer Scott Minerd has some. He says from a interview on Bloomberg television:
  • hard to imagine scenario that you can contain virus threat
  • expect 1/2 to 1% drag on US GDP. Not yet a recession
  • Europe, China are probably already in recession
  • stock market could be down 15 – 20%, would force fed and
  • by credit if spreads reach levels of 2015 energy hit
  • if crisis is US, not enough respirators to fight it
  • Fed may look to cut if yield curve inverts
The odds of 8 Fed cut at the March meeting has risen to near 60% over the last few days. That meeting will take place on March 18.

China, Japan, & South Korea at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains

  
  Analysis
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South China Morning Post  on what is coming next –  ‘second wave’ of coronavirus economic impact

  • China, Japan and South Korea are at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains due to the ongoing impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which risks already slowing global trade, analysts warned.
  • The three Asian countries contribute around 24 per cent of the entire world economy with a combined yearly trading volume of over US$720 billion, forming one of the most integrated international economic blocs in the world.
Here is the link for more.

South China Morning Post  on what is coming next -  'second wave' of coronavirus economic impact 

Bloodbath : Major indices get hammered. All 3 major indices down -4.4% on the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Major indices lose 1% additional in the last 15 minutes of trading on major liquidation

the major indices in the US get hammered once again with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq indices all lower by -4.4%

The S&P and Dow had there worst point drop in history (not % though).  Major indices all closed in correction (down over 10% from the highs).
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -137.89 points or -4.42% at 2978.51.
  • The NASDAQ index -414.29 points or 4.61% at 8566.48.
  • Dow industrial average 1192.27 points or -4.42% at 29765.33
Year to date, the
  • Dow is down -9.71%
  • S&P is down -7.8%
  • Nasdaq is down -4.53%
From the high last week, the major indices are showing:
  • NASDAQ index -13%
  • S&P is down -12.30%
  • Dow is down about 12.9%
The Vix, often called the fear index has moved up to 38.5. That surpasses the 36.2 high from December 2018.  That’s the highest level since February 2018. The highest volatility index going back to 2015 moved up to 50.3 and 2018 and 53.29 and 2015.

The good news is that the European stock markets are closed

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX, -3.1%. France’s CAC down -3.8%

The good news for the European stock markets is that they are close for the day.  Each of the major indices had sharp declines. Sometimes closing feels good. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -3.1%
  • France’s CAC, -3.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -3.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.6%
To give an idea of the year to date performance of the major indices :
  • Germany, -6.65%
  • France, -7.6%
  • UK FTSE 100, -9.7%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -5.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.8%
Comparing to the US market year-to-date:
  • Dow industrial average, -7.6%
  • S&P index, -5.63%
  • NASDAQ index -2.42%
In Asia the year-to-date’s are showing:
  • Japan’s Nikkei, -7.22%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, -5.01%
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 -0.39%
  • China’s Shanghai index -1.93%

In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

  • gold is trading up $12.80 or 0.78% at $1653.72
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $-2.08 or -4.25% of $46.66
In the US stock market the snapshot of the major indices currently shows:
  • S&P index -69.3 points or -2.22% of 3047.44
  • NASDAQ index -221.2 points or -2.46% at 8759.96
  • Dow -578 points or at -2.17% at 26371
In the US debt market yields are sharply lower with the 2 year down -8.9 basis points. The 10 year is down -5.8 basis points.. The 2 – 10 yield spread has widened to 20.42 basis points from 17.24 basis points yesterday on increasing expectations that the FOMC will be forced to lower rates
US yields are lower across the board with a letter yield curve
In the European debt market, yields are mixed with German, France, and UK yields lower while Spain, Italy, Portugal yields are higher (flight to safety and out of the riskier countries):
European yields are mixed
In the forex market, the EUR is the strongest (and got stronger in the session).  Germany did say earlier today that they would contemplate more fiscal stimulus and technicals improved. The EURUSD did run into resistance against the 1.100 level however.
The weakest currency is the CAD as oil continues to get hammered. The GBP and USD are also weaker on the day:

IMF likely to downgrade global growth outlook

  
Analysis, Economy

IMF spokesperson

The week or so ago the IMF lowered the global growth forecast by 0.1% as a result of the coronavirus (why even announce it).
A spokesperson is now saying that the IMF is likely to downgrade global growth in the next world economic outlook as a result of the virus.
He/she adds:
  • expects decision soon on impact of coronavirus on spring meetings of IMF/world bank. Issue under active review

The IMF is pretty much stating the obvious.

German government considering possible stimulus programme to combat virus epidemic – report

  
  Analysis

Handelsblatt reports

Germany

The report says that the German government is considering various scenarios and plans to outline potential measures should be ready in a few days. The stimulus programme is largely to combat the virus epidemic if it hits the German economy hard.

The good news for the euro just keeps piling in for now. EUR/USD is now up to 1.0963 to fresh session highs on the day currently.
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