Archives of “January 2020” month

rss

“Global standard” gauge of currency misalignment has GBP 22% undervalued against the USD

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Here’s a bit of (useful) fun, The Economist’s “Big Mac index” to gauge whether currencies are at their “correct” level against the US dollar.

Its based on the currency valuation model of purchasing-power parity (PPP), i.e. that “in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of an identical basket of goods and services (in this case, a burger) in any two countries”.Says the magazine (link here, may be gated(

  • Burgernomics was never intended as a precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economic textbooks and the subject of dozens of academic studies. 

Some of the results (more at that link)

The Economist's "Big Mac index" currencies US dollar

How coronavirus will impact oil markets – OPEC considering production cuts

  
Analysis, Crude
#  #  #  #  #  #

The terrible human toll continues to increase.

Taking a look at oil though, this via Platts (S&P Global Platts is an energy and commodities information house).
Latest (in brief):
  • forecasting a drop of 200,000 b/d in oil demand for the next two to three months, reflecting roughly 15% of the expected oil demand growth in 2020
  • If the coronavirus is as bad as the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, oil demand could fall by 700,000-800,000 b/d, reflecting more than half of the expected demand growth for 2020
  • OPEC members are considering deeper production cuts, or extending their existing deal, in response to a slump in oil prices, according to a source in the group.”The next two weeks are very critical for not only the oil market but the global economy,” the OPEC source said Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Bolding above is mine.
oil markets - OPEC said to be considering production cuts

Coronavirus fears unlikely to turn the Fed into doves

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

The view from TD is that forecasting the extent of coronavirus contagion to the global economy or ‘risk’ is difficult.

But:
  • “we don’t expect the Fed to go more dovish simply because the market has become more nervous”
  • yield on the 10 yr is significantly lower since the start of the year
  •  “We don’t think the Fed is going to be a catalyst for a continued move lower in Treasury yields” 
However, the Fed will keep an eye on developments re the virus, on market sentiment and potential cascade for risk-off.
They’ll also keep an eye on what this guy wants, right?
The view from TD is that forecasting the extent of coronavirus contagion to the global economy or 'risk' is difficult.

Dow and S&P have the worst day since October

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

NASDAQ has its worst day since August.   Fears about coronavirus send major indices lower.

Major indices are ending the session sharply lower. The Dow and S&P had their worst day since October. The NASDAQ index fared even worse with its worst day since August.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -51.89 points or -1.57% to 3243.57. The high reached 3258.85. The low extended to 3234.50 (early in the session).
  • NASDAQ index fell -175.60 points or -1.89% to 9139.30. The high reached 9185.449. The low extended to 9088.043.
  • Dow industrial average fell -453.93 points or -1.57% to 28535.80.  The high reached 28671.79. The low extended to 28440.47.
Some losers on the day included:
  • United Airlines, -5.26%
  • Schlumberger, -5.06%
  • Broadcom, -4.69%
  • Nvidia, -4.12%
  • Intel, -4.07%
  • Micron, -4.04%
  • Alibaba, -3.78%
  • Intuitive Surgical, -3.65%
  • FedEx -3.65%
  • DuPont, +3.4%
  • Delta airlines -3.38%
  • Caterpillar, -3.35%
  • American Express, -3.32%
  • Disney, -3.05%
  • Apple -2.93%
Winners in a huge down day included:
  • Beyond Meat, +4.43%
  • Chewy, +1.79%
  • target, +1.29%
  • Walmart, +1.28%
  • Gilead, +1.12%
  • Pfizer, +0.8%
  • Procter & Gamble, +0.42%
  • Walgreens Boots, +0.35%
  • Stryker, +0.16%
  • Merck, +0.16%
Whirlpool is reporting and beat of $4.91 versus estimate of $4.27.  Revenues fell short of expectations at 5.38 billion versus 5.52 billion estimate.  Whirlpool shares are trading at $149 per share that’s up $0.77 or 0.52%.

Earnings releases pickup tomorrow with 3M, Starbucks, Apple, Pfizer and Lockheed Martin as some of the key releases.

Other key releases this week include:
  • Wednesday: Tesla, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Boeing, Facebook
  • Thursday: Amazon, UPS, Coca-Cola, Electronic Arts, Biogen
  • Friday: Chevron, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive

European shares end sharply lower on the day on global growth concerns

  
Analysis, Global Indices
#  #  #  #  #  #

Coronavirus hurting major indices

European major indices are ending sharply lower on the back of global growth concerns as a result of the coronavirus.  The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -2.6%
  • France’s CAC, -2.7%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -2.32%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -2.2%

In the European debt markets, yields are ending sharply lower with Italy leading the way after regional elections turned back attempts from Salvini’s attempt to bring national politics more to the right (and away from the EU).  Investors flocked into the Italian debt instruments.

European yields are sharply lower with Italy leading the way

In other markets as European/London traders look to exit are showing:
  • spot gold up $10.70 or 0.68% $1582.25
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $1.56 4-2.86% at $52.64. That is off the low $52.13.  Brent crude oil futures are down $1.77 or 2.9% at $58.93. It’s low reached $58.50
Go to top