Ahead of the FOMC minutes this week, a forecast of an October rate cut

UBS are citing the US slowdown to potentially arrive sooner than expected

  • Which, they say, opens the door to a Fed funds rate cut in October.
(Federal Open Market Committee meeting is October 29 and 30)
Citing trade tension with China –  a substantial shock to the economy – tariffs causing a slump in private demand
  • tarfifs weakening employment in manufacturing, retail
Following that the bank expects further cuts in:
  • January, March and June 2020
  • And also say that due to the run of recent data there is risk is to the downside for the Fed to cut more.