EUR/USD hits a session high of 1.1154 as the greenback softens
What’s telling about the move here is that markets are calling into question the dollar’s allure as a haven currency amid the risk-off mood. In theory, the greenback should gain on soggy markets but there are reasons for traders to be more cautious this time around.
As mentioned earlier this week, the current situation may not warrant a straightforward dollar rise despite markets having been down this road before. There are considerable differences between the circumstances last year and this year.
What stands out to me is that Trump’s tariffs will eventually take a toll on US corporate earnings as profits hurt due to cost of goods rising and that in turn will eat at consumer demand and also at the US economy in the bigger picture.
US Q2 economic projections have already been slashed rather significantly over the past few weeks and with US equities also selling off (flows perhaps moving out of the US), markets are potentially at a crossroads now.
The question being: Is the global trade war involving the US bad for the dollar or is the US strong enough to brush aside these worries i.e. dollar being the best of a bad bunch?