Archives of “January 2019” month

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Laws of Speculation

  
  Education
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1. Never Overtrade. To take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. With such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.

2. Never “Double Up”; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. Being “long,” for instance, do not “sell out” and go as much “short.” This may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and the speculator “covers up” and “goes long” again. Should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. The change in the original position should have been made moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.

3. “Run Quickly,” or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the “interest.”

4. Another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. One man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market: his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “Sell down to a sleeping point.”

Shut Up and Listen

  
  Education
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  1. Being reactive to actual price action instead of predictive of what price action will be is a winning principle I have seen in many rich traders. Letting price action give you signals is trading reality, trading your beliefs about what price ‘should be’ is wishful thinking.

  2. Great traders are bullish in bull markets and bearish in bear markets, until the end when the trend bends.

shutup5

These two rules or habits simply aren’t being utilised, either because people don’t know them, or think they’re better than them.

Let me tell you this – no-one is better than the rules.  And the traders that have been ignoring them are feeling this right now where it hurts.

I know of professionals who are quitting over what the market has been doing recently.  I know of professionals who are at breaking point – literally a nervous wreck because they cannot fathom that the market will go higher….and yet it does.

If you don’t follow these two  rules, you will never flow with the market.  You will constantly be in conflict; constantly fighting and stubbornly protecting your ‘rightness’, and you will never be in tune with what the market is saying.

These two rules can be neatly summed up in one sentence.

Shut Up and Listen.

Stop talking.  Stop thinking.  Just listen to what the market is telling you.

What should you look for in a trading system?

  
  Education
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1. Profitability: This is a must when we look for a system .Lowering the risk factor and increasing the reward is simply the answer to a profitable system

2. Probability: One of the important elements of a trading system, but it does not always mean it will be a profitable trading system, if the proper money management is not in use.
3. Consistency: Without consistency we will not be able to breath in the on going changing market condition. A consistently profitable system will pick up some drawdown as soon as the extreme condition is over.

4.Flexibility: Providing Simple, Easy and Powerful System which can be used in any time frame and on any financial instrument.

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides

  
  Education
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richard-donchian
Richard Donchian is best known for developing the Donchian Channel Indicator. This is a simple trend following tool that detects and alerts you to breakouts by plotting the highest high and the lowest low over the last period time interval which the user specifies.
Through his many years of trading and writing weekly newsletters (Commodity Trend Timing), Richard Donchian shares with us some very valuable trend trading wisdom.

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing. (more…)
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