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A Winning Mindset is Required To Succeed

  • A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to
    transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.
  • The winning traders have usually been winning at whatever field they are in for years.
  • It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to
    satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.
  • The “doing” part of trading is simple. You just pick up the phone and place orders. The “being” part is a bit more subtle. It’s like being an athlete. It’s commitment arid mission. To the committed, a world of support appears. All manner of unforeseen assistance materializes to support and propel the committed to meet grand destiny.
  • In your recipe for success, don’t forget commitment – and a deep belief in the inevitability of your success.

Shakespeare ‘was a ruthless trader’

Hoarder, moneylender, tax dodger — it’s not how we usually think of William Shakespeare.

But we should, according to a group of academics who say the playwright was a ruthless businessman who grew wealthy dealing in grain during a time of famine.

Researchers from Aberystwyth University in Wales argue that we can’t fully understand Shakespeare unless we study his often-overlooked business savvy.

“Shakespeare the grain-hoarder has been redacted from history so that Shakespeare the creative genius could be born,” the researchers say in a paper due to be delivered at the Hay literary festival in Wales in May.

Jayne Archer, a lecturer in medieval and Renaissance literature at Aberystwyth, said that oversight is the product of “a willful ignorance on behalf of critics and scholars who I think — perhaps through snobbery — cannot countenance the idea of a creative genius also being motivated by self-interest.” (more…)

What U Can Learn From Occam’s Razor About TRADING

I have seen too many traders that randomly add condition after condition to their trading strategy, hoping that it will increase their hitrate. What they are trying to do is to add assumption after assumption to their hypothesis, until their hypothesis (“price will move in to this or that direction for this or that amount”) is hopefully correct more often than not.

Going this way usually ends in paralysis through analysis or in total chaos because there are so many conditions when entering a trade that it is impossible for a human brain to follow the system, thus inducing mistakes.

 Enter: Occam’s Razor

Occam was one of those scholastic philosophers, living around 1300 A.D. He developed a principle called Occam’s Razor which states that “among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove to provide better predictions, but—in the absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better.” But Occam was not the first, even Aristotle, who was living a mere 2000 years ago, theorized about this concept.

Now the thing is that of course when you add or remove certain conditions to your trading strategy, the predictive ability of your strategy will vary thus rendering Occam’s Razor seemingly invalid. Seemingly. Because trading is a game of incomplete information, we can never exactly know the predictive ability of a model.

Even after testing thoroughly, we will always only get an estimate (our winrate). Because of this fact you should base your trading strategy on as few assumptions as possible. (more…)

India's GDP growth to crawl at 4.7% in second quarter: ZyFin

Barely over a week ahead of release of the official GDP data, research and analytical firm ZyFin today estimated India’s economy to expand by 4.7% in the  second quarter of the current financial year. The methodology used by ZyFin is distinct  and it claimed that it uses variables  which are lead indicators to the official data. If GDP indeed grows by this rate, the Finance  Ministry’s hopes of  GDP growth between 5-5.5%  in 2013-14 may be dashed.  

 
In the first quarter of the current financial year, the GDP expanded at a four-year bottom of 4.4%. At that time, ZyFin had estimated a growth of 4.5%. 
 
“We still believe that the economy is in a crisis mode and much below what the economy used to grow at a pace of around 8%”, Debopam Chaudhuri, Vice President of Research and Development at Zyfin told Business Standard.
 
However, even if the economy grows at this pace, it would be at a year high — both according to official and ZyFin estimates. In the second quarter of 2012-13, the economic growth was higher at 5.2% as per official estimates and by ZyFin’s calculations it was 5.1%.
 
“While the estimates indicate a sluggish recovery, high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and a slowing services sector will constrain any sustained recovery”, said the firm. (more…)