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The Darvas System in a Nutshell

I  truly admire  author and trader Darrin Donnelly for bringing the system thatNicolas Darvas used to make over $2 million in the stock market into modern times by really setting more precise metrics for the Darvas system. He uses moving averages we have today to look at possible price supports in addition to the price boxes that Darvas used. Below is a concise summary of the Darvas system in an up trending market.

While O’Neil is a brilliant trader who has helped thousands make better investment decisions, I feel that there are some aspects of the CAN SLIM system that, frankly, aren’t all that important in picking winning stocks.

Therefore, we offer a new, easy-to-remember acronym for the Darvas System:

D – Direction of the Market
A – Accelerated Earnings and Sales
R – Relative Price Strength (and Return on Equity)
V – Volume Increasing
A – Aggressive Growth Group
S – Sound Base Pattern

To further explain:

D – Direction of the Market

Is the market, as a whole, in an uptrend?  It is highly unlikely that a stock will have huge gains when the overall market is in a downtrend, so make sure the direction of the market is moving upward.

A – Accelerated Earnings and Sales

Is the company seeing increases in earnings and sales this quarter compared to the same quarter last year?

Normally, you want to see stocks with at least 40% increases in earning AND sales in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter last year.  And remember, the higher the increase in earnings and sales, the better.  If you have a choice between a stock with a 50% increase and one with a 90% increase, definitely go with the 90% increase stock.

R – Relative Price Strength (and Return on Equity)

Is the stock outperforming most other stocks in terms of its price increase?

Darvas wanted to see stocks that had at least doubled over the past year before he’d consider buying.  If a stock has already increased a great deal over the past year, most investors are fearful of a steep decline, but many studies have shown that Darvas was right in his assessment; if a stock had already made a powerful move, it proved that it had the ability to move in such a fashion and therefore, was likely to do it again.

Another important characteristic of ideal Darvas stocks is a high Return on Equity.  Fund managers love to see a high ROE.  Some put a higher value on ROE than they do earnings and sales. (more…)

Subbarao fears fiscal deficit to fuel next crisis

RBI GOVERNER

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, expressed fear that the next financial debacle could stem from a currency crisis or from the way the government handles its ‘stimulus exit’. Speaking at the first International Research Conference organised by RBI here on Saturday, Subbarao said,

“I worry that in resolving this financial crisis, perhaps we are sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Next crisis could be a currency or a fiscal crisis.” The central banker, however, denied that RBI would back out from its commitment to full convertibility of rupee but would impart flexibility to its pre-determined course in the light of the recent global economic developments.

Participating in a panel discussion, the RBI governor said the developed economies may fail to wind down their borrowings, leading to cyclical deficits morphing into ‘structural fiscal deficits’, affecting the system as a whole. In the wake of global credit crisis, following the US sub-prime crisis in 2008, many governments and central banks pumped in huge funds and resorted to low-interest-rate monetary policies, for boosting their sagging economies. These have resulted in bloating of fiscal deficits. (more…)

Lifestyle & Improvement

  • 63 ways to build more confidence (LifeHack)

  • Ways to live forever (James Altucher)

  • What not to say when pulled over by a cop (Chris Rock)

  • How to simplify your life (Frugal Zeitgeist)

  • The minimalist’s guide to cultivating passion (Zen Habits)

  • How great leaders inspire action (Ted)

  • Success in most arenas of life is thus not a reflection of innate skill but rather devoted effort (Peter Orszag)

Trading Wisdom – Trend Following

For most people, trend following is extremely counter-intuitive. Why? Because it’s human nature to look for bargains before buying. People tend to buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. But, how many are bold enough to do the opposite by buying high and selling even higher? My guess is; not many. And what about risk management? Yeah, what about it? Remember the dot com bubble era? Out of all the people that got caught up in that frenzy, how many do you think even had a risk management plan in place? Hmmm…
Back in those days, I’ve never even heard of a stop loss. We all just jumped in blindly with dreams of making it big. And a lot of us got burned. Really bad. All the warning signs where there and yet we chose to ignore it. We foolishly rode our stocks all the way down and in the process, destroying every little glimmer of hope that we had for a turn-around. A lot of us lost 80-90% of our so-called “long term investment.” It’s tragic. But we can all learn from this valuable lesson.
Trend following is a life philosophy. It works in trading and it also works in daily life. It’s simply a matter of sticking with what works and getting rid of what’s not. That’s it! It’s a deceptively simple little system that can be applied into all aspects of your life. And if you follow this line of thought, I guarantee that you will see dramatic improvements. You just can’t help but to get better because ultimately, what are you left with in the end? That’s right, WINNERS!

Quetions after the Loss

When you take a hit, you have got to think your way through it logically.

Questions to ask yourself when you have taken a hit.

What is the lesson here???

What did I learn????

How can I avoid this next time????

What is my strategy the next time I encounter this situation????

Did I remember to pat myself on the back for the good trades this month?????

Did I remind myself that I have had many more successes this month??????

Did I remind myself that this is just an opportunity to do it better next time?????

Did I use proper discipline????????

Did I wait for a proper trade set-up??????

Did I follow my trading rules????????

How long am I going to wallow here???????

Did I remind myself that the market is very generous and will always give me plenty of opportunities for profit???????

Do I have more money now than I did at the beginning of the month????

If YES, you are ok.
You are out to win the war, though you may lose a few battles.

If the answer is NO and you are consistently taking hits,
then STOP and RETHINK your strategy, There is something WRONG!

No one can tell you how to trade; all they can do is share their experience and you will have to tweak it to fit your trading style. Thinking through your losses logically will give you the best advantage over reacting emotionally .