The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson
“The shadow world of derivatives, credit-default swaps, the sales of U.S. bonds to China ; all seem to bring brilliant results, until they get too big.”
Great book ; go out there and buy it, thank me later 🙂
Archives of “January 23, 2019” day
rssWhy 95 % Traders Lose ?- Anirudh Sethi
What if I told you that there is one thing that you can do as a trader? What if I said that all professional traders have one key habit in common. Further, what if I told you this secret habit allows the future to be anticipated by these expert traders and allows these traders to trade in a manner than traders? Traders using this habit understand what to expect from the markets and this habit gives a decided advantage that forex traders don’t have, confidence in their trading systems to these traders. Keep reading to see how you may create this habit yours that is key.
Would you like to know what this secret habit is?
This habit is not adopted by many traders though this secret habit is by far the single best predictor of trading success.
This is the one thing that all successful traders have in common. This one habit is known by many dealers but adopted by a few traders. Consequently, these few dealers are often the most prosperous traders on Earth and constitute the 3.7percent of profitable forex traders. Adopting this habit is the most important thing you can do for your trading.
This is a secret as it allows this group of forex traders to trade relaxed, anticipate the future and remain confident that traders hold dear.
That successful forex traders share, this one habit is this: their trading strategies are back tested by successful traders. They take the time to pour over market information using one of three testing methods. Successful forex traders have the ability to keep a more relaxed approach as they’ve seen their trading system perform over the years – often over the course of thousands of market scenarios and transactions. Armed with the data these consistently successful forex traders have the ability to anticipate the future. Maintaining a quiet assurance, successful forex traders have information to support their trading knowing that they will prevail in the markets have seen their trading platform work previously, and they know it is going to work later on. (more…)
FEAR
Fear has a way of making us focus on unfavorable headlines and price action. Fear impacts our ability to evaluate alternatives as it clouds objectivity. Fear is why profits are taken too quickly. Fear is a four letter word that comes in many flavors.
Fear of losing: Nobody wants to lose—doesn’t matter if it’s a spelling bee in the 5th grade or a newly entered long position in a stock that just broke through resistance. Losing sucks. Losing reminds us that perhaps we aren’t as good as we thought (hoped).
Fear of being wrong: Remember that time you blurted out the wrong answer and everyone laughed? Still sticks with you after all these years and screws with your mind. That new short position you just took is about to get squeezed—or at least that’s the thought running through your mind, right?
Fear of missing out: This is where we can really let our imperfections shine as we buy at the top and sell at the bottom. But hey, we didn’t miss out on the action! Succumbing to the fear of missing a potential move and jumping in mid-stream trumps any good trading plan or preparation. This is a lack of self-discipline and causes much of the psychological damage seen in the markets.
Fear impedes our ability to be creative. Fear suffocates, debilitates, and causes many to wonder “what if…” rather than “why not…” Hope is used as a remedy by the fearful, but often gets smashed and is soon replaced with self-help books, talk therapy and medication.
Courage is what’s needed—the courage to fail. With proper planning, risk can be managed and success can be found. Having the courage to step off the curb lends itself nicely to creating who you are as a market participant. Define your risk, adhere to your trading plan and fear becomes a fleeting thought rather than a debilitating one.
It’s OK to lose. Just make sure that it’s within your defined risk/reward and move on.
It’s OK to be wrong. What’s not OK is to be stubborn and stick with a losing
position.
It’s OK to miss out. There are thousands of other names out there, find your trade.
If you want to become a better trader you need to realize that fear cannot be eliminated. It can, however, be used as an edge in your market participation. For me, one of my favorite times to sell premium is after a large, quick move—puts for fear and calls for greed.
“To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom.” ~ Bertrand Russell
Ed Seykota: "A losing trader is not going to… transform himself. That's the kind of thing winning traders do."
Confidence
Many of the market wizards actually had multiple terrible failures as an amateur trade in their early days.
Most average traders would have simply given up on trading after experiencing a few rounds of negative experiences as a money losing trader.
However, one trait that differentiates these top traders from average traders was that they had absolute belief in their abilities to make things right in the end.
They persisted in honing their trading skills despite multiple failures because they had the kind of confidence in themselves, which average people do not have.
They were confident enough to try and try and try again until they made it in the end.
Betting against retail traders has a long history
About Ben Graham intellectualism. The Einstein of Money. Great bio
6 Thumb Rules of Market
Something today reminded me of a mentor (English teacher, older guy retired a few years later) that I had in high school. One of the key things he told me was, “Never get serious with a girl whose mother you would not want to have relations with, if given the chance”. I think more than a few times that thought flashed before my eyes and it saved me from serious error, partly because it was memorable. I’m trying to think of any similar rules of thumb that might help us to avoid those trades or strategies that can severely set back profits, create anguish, and otherwise make things worse than they should be. Any ideas?
“Never get serious with a girl whose mother you would not want to have relations with, if given the chance”– I thought that was only my words!
There can be many similar things for trading. Here are some for critique.
1. If you don’t like someone’s way of life, don’t trade like him.
2. If you don’t like the dominant players of a market, don’t trade that market.
3. If you don’t like the rule makers of a market, don’t trade that market.
4. (I learned this one from Scott Brooks) If there is already a professional at the table, go somewhere else.
5. If you don’t like a country’s tax code, don’t trade in that country.
6. If a market hasn’t shown a lot of opportunities in the past, don’t trade that market.
Money Management
Money management is like sex: Everyone does it, one way or another, but not many like to talk about it and some do it better than others. But there’s a big difference: Sex sites on the Web proliferate, while sites devoted to the art and science of money management are somewhat difficult to find
Livermore on speculation
Just remember, without a discipline, a clear strategy and a concise plan, the speculator will fall into all the emotional pitfalls of the market and jump from one stock to another, hold a losing position too long, cut-out of a winner too soon and for no reason other than fear of losing the profit. Greed, fear, impatience, ignorance and hope, will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator. Then after a few failures and catastrophes, the speculator may become demoralized, depressed, despondent, and abondon the market and the chance to make a fortune of what the market has to offer.
Develop your own strategy, discipline and approach to the market. I offer my suggestions as one, who has traveled the road before you. Perhaps I can act as a guide for you and save from falling in some of the pitfalls that befell me. But in the end the decisions must be your own”.