rss

Baker & Nofsinger, eds., Behavioral Finance

Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, edited by H. Kent Baker and John R. Nofsinger (Wiley, 2010) is a must-have book for anyone who wants a comprehensive review of the literature on behavioral finance. In thirty-six chapters academics from around the world write about the key concepts of behavioral finance, behavioral biases, behavioral aspects of asset pricing, behavioral corporate finance, investor behavior, and social influences. The book is hefty (757 pages of typographically dense text), and each contribution includes an extensive bibliography. But this is not simply a reference book; it reads surprisingly well.

Why should we study behavioral finance? “Anyone with a spouse, child, boss, or modicum of self-insight knows that the assumption of Homo economicus is false.” (p. 23) In our investing and trading—indeed, in all the financial decisions we make, we are prone to behavioral biases; we are often inconsistent in our choices. Only if we understand the kinds of emotional pulls that negatively affect our financial decisions can we begin to address them as problems. Some of the authors offer suggestions for overcoming these problems.

Here are a few takeaways from the book that give a sense of its tone and breadth.

First, I am happy to report that the literature shows that “high-IQ investors have better stock-picking abilities” than low-IQ investors and they “also appear more skillful because they incur lower transaction costs.” (p. 571) I figure that everyone reading this review falls into the Lake Wobegon category.

Second, individual investors can form powerful herds. “[T]rading by individuals is highly correlated and surprisingly persistent. …[I]ndividual investors tend to commit the same kind of behavioral biases at or around the same time [and hence] have the potential of aggregating. If this is the case, individual investors cannot be treated merely as noise traders but more like a giant institution in terms of their potential impact on the markets.” (p. 531)

Third, what are some of the behavioral factors affecting perceived risk? Although the author lists eleven factors, I’ll share just two. “Benefit: The more individuals perceive a benefit from a potential risky activity, the more accepting and less anxiety (fear) they feel…. Controllability: People undertake more risk when they perceive they are personally in control because they are more likely to trust their own abilities and skills….” (p. 139)

And finally, investors’ attitude toward risk is not fixed. They care about fluctuations in their wealth, not simply the total level. “[T]hey are much more sensitive to reductions in their wealth than to increases,” and “people are less risk averse after prior gains and more risk averse after prior losses.” (p. 355) Interestingly, CBOT traders tend to exhibit a different pattern, reducing risk in the afternoon if they’ve had a profitable morning.

As should be expected in this kind of volume, there is a fair amount of repetition. The same studies are quoted by several authors. We read about such topics as overconfidence and the disposition effect multiple times. The context is different, the principles are the same. But through repetition we come to appreciate the scope of behavioral finance (and often its limitations as well).

Although this book is certainly no primer, the reader needs only a passing familiarity with behavioral finance to profit from it. And for those who are better acquainted with the field, it is a useful compendium and an excellent research tool. It has earned a place in my library.

ABCD of Trading-Simple Formula

If A + B + C, then D.

The answer is patience.  In this equation, or one much like it, we just may find the answer to impatience. For instance, let’s assume D is a high probability trade opportunity and A, B, and C are the factors that must be present to produce D. If there is no A, B, and C then there is no D.  Notice I did not say A, B, OR C, nor did I say not A BUT B and C: I said A, B, AND C.  There’s that word again.  We cannot be tempted to replace the word AND with any other word, especially OR or BUT.  If we do then we open ourselves up to any number of trading errors based solely on our inability to practice patience.

There is an A + B BUT no C.

Here we fall victim to not wanting to miss something, or what we refer to as the fear of missing out.  We rationalize, allow our ego to convince us that we should not miss this opportunity, and we enter the trade knowing full well that our trading edge is not as sharp as it should be.  We say to ourselves: “A + B looks really good so why wait around for C?  What if C never comes?  Then I risk missing a great opportunity. I would really hate to miss the move while waiting on C.”  Wrong!  We impatiently pull the trigger, breaking our rules.

There is an A or B or C BUT no A + B +C. (more…)

Are Great Traders Born or Bred?

In a recent speech to a class at Harvard Business School Mark Sellers, founder of Chicago-based hedge fund Sellers Capital, argues that great traders are born and not bred. He believes that there are seven “structural assets” that cannot be taught, adding, ” They have to do with psychology. You can’t do much about that.”

The traits:

1) The ability to buy when others are panicking, and vice versa

2) An obsession with the trading game

3) A willingness to learn from past mistakes

4) An inherent sense of risk based on common sense

5) A confidence in your convictions and a willingness to stick with them

6) An ability to have “both sides of your brain working” (i.e. to go beyond the math)

7) The ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process

I  think that some of the concepts discussed here are spot on (and I spend a great deal of time hammering home the importance of #7) , but I disagree with the overall idea that great traders are born, not made. I believe success in trading is not about a specific style, but rather about understanding your personality traits and then developing a trading style (and which product – i.e. stocks, commodities, fx) that fits you best.

We are who we are. That does not change throughout our life, but we can learn to wait for times when the market is paying our personality type and then generate successful returns when that window of opportunity appears.

10 Friends & 10 Enemies of Traders

A Trader’s 10 Best Friends

  1. Studying the markets to understand what works. $Study
  2. You are comfortable with uncertainty. ????
  3. Being optimistic about winning in the long term. #Winning
  4. You manage risk very carefully on each trade. #RiskofRuin
  5. Thinking in probabilities and asymmetrical trades. #RiskReward
  6. Following your trading plan. #Discipline
  7. Accepting losses. #StopLoss
  8. Letting winners run. #TrendFollowing
  9. A plan on exactly how you will trade. #TradingPlan
  10. A robust trading system. #EDGE

A Trader’s 10 Worst Enemies

  1. Scared to enter a trade.#Fear
  2. Feeling the need to be right on every trade. #Pride
  3. Entering a trade too late or taking profits too soon. #Impatience (more…)