Historically, there is a strong price period for gold (shaded in yellow in chart below) from late August until late September or early October as demand increases as jewelers again stock up ahead of a the seasonal wedding event in India and also, as investors return from summer vacations. Entering long positions on or about August 26 and holding until October 1 has worked 23 times in the last 41 years for a success rate of 56.1%. In the 19 years since 1996, this trade has been profitable 13 times with a cumulative potential profit of $17,550 per single futures contract.
Sizable losses were suffered in 2011, 2013 and 2014; however this trade’s best performance ever was in 2012. In recent years, gold’s seasonal strength has begun earlier; in late July or early August and finished sooner; sometime in September to early October. Last year’s trade would have been profitable with an earlier entry and/or earlier exit.